This is well thought out. Not an idea that I’ve seen get traction elsewhere, so kudos to you for getting it out there for consideration,. Turkey and its state pipeline company have a long history of creating transit corridors for oil and gas. Two thoughts to consider: one. A pipeline from Qatar to Turkey will be in the $5 billion range. While it could be financed directly from sovereign wealth, It’s more likely that it would be project financed and a multi stakeholder multi country coalition. Two. One of the big commercial questions in multi country gas pipelines is: where is the point of sale from producer to consumer? Producers generally prefer to sell at the outlet of the pipeline, and consumers prefer to buy at the inlet of the pipeline. Why? Pipeline tariff, and most importantly, pipeline capacity allocation is the responsibility of the entity owning the gas in transit.
First, the religious and ethnic issues inside Islam. That helps a temporary union between sunnism countries (and even Israel), in oposition to the grow influence of Iran in recent years. It is likely that they focus now on "attacking" more Iran, and also Israel; but could be opposition inside sunnism, between the Muslim Brother and saudi wahabism
Second, I share your view of gas from Qatar to Europe. But, relating with the previous point, I think that this gas could go trough two places: Israel (we must remember that the IMEC logistic corridor and even the Ben Gurion channel needs Gaza free of people) and Turkey. Probably, and they are positionating in Siria, will be competition for ensure that gas corridors. Qatar and Turkey are sunni muslims, and both are oposed to Iran and Saudies. At the same time, both have influence in Europe. At the same time, USA and Israel are close. If we look the needs of energy, the Golf countries can decided and, if they are smart, diversify and look on their own interests connecting with China and India and also remaining an important source for Europe. If I was Qatar and should decide for only Turkey or Israel, I will keep with Turkey.
Thanks for your comments! I don't think it's going to be Israel. I don't think any of its neighbors and the countries in the region will support such a project. For a pipeline, Turkey is the obvious solution for Qatar. India/ China will be much longer and much more complex considering geography and politics.
Where did you find estimate for field reserves and levels of depletion? Is there a centralized source of info or did you have to dig into a bunch of sources?
What a great read. Thank you and thanks to Roger Pielke for the link to your piece. I saw it a few days ago on my phone's Sub page that shows stories at the top and writers' comments and notes below it. It was lurking until Roger's link pushed me into action.
Your geopolitical take is much appreciated for its simplicity and lack of political underpinnings. Well done.
I doubt anything will happen. Yeah there all these plans, but Syria is just likely to collapse Iraq/Afghanistan style and be in a state of civil war, and you can't build anything in that case.
This is well thought out. Not an idea that I’ve seen get traction elsewhere, so kudos to you for getting it out there for consideration,. Turkey and its state pipeline company have a long history of creating transit corridors for oil and gas. Two thoughts to consider: one. A pipeline from Qatar to Turkey will be in the $5 billion range. While it could be financed directly from sovereign wealth, It’s more likely that it would be project financed and a multi stakeholder multi country coalition. Two. One of the big commercial questions in multi country gas pipelines is: where is the point of sale from producer to consumer? Producers generally prefer to sell at the outlet of the pipeline, and consumers prefer to buy at the inlet of the pipeline. Why? Pipeline tariff, and most importantly, pipeline capacity allocation is the responsibility of the entity owning the gas in transit.
That's a very important observation with even larger ramifications - I'll get back to that in a follow-up posting which I'm working on.
Erudite and scholarly article, thank you.
Many thanks!
Great post.
And do not expect CO2 emissions or methane leakage to worry Erdogan or impact his strategy in the least.
Many thanks!
Very good one. I will add two thinks.
First, the religious and ethnic issues inside Islam. That helps a temporary union between sunnism countries (and even Israel), in oposition to the grow influence of Iran in recent years. It is likely that they focus now on "attacking" more Iran, and also Israel; but could be opposition inside sunnism, between the Muslim Brother and saudi wahabism
Second, I share your view of gas from Qatar to Europe. But, relating with the previous point, I think that this gas could go trough two places: Israel (we must remember that the IMEC logistic corridor and even the Ben Gurion channel needs Gaza free of people) and Turkey. Probably, and they are positionating in Siria, will be competition for ensure that gas corridors. Qatar and Turkey are sunni muslims, and both are oposed to Iran and Saudies. At the same time, both have influence in Europe. At the same time, USA and Israel are close. If we look the needs of energy, the Golf countries can decided and, if they are smart, diversify and look on their own interests connecting with China and India and also remaining an important source for Europe. If I was Qatar and should decide for only Turkey or Israel, I will keep with Turkey.
Thanks for your comments! I don't think it's going to be Israel. I don't think any of its neighbors and the countries in the region will support such a project. For a pipeline, Turkey is the obvious solution for Qatar. India/ China will be much longer and much more complex considering geography and politics.
This is well spotted and well argued. Thanks for pulling the threads together.
A belated thank you for the well researched and presented article.
I read this thanks to Roger Peilke’s recommendation.
I was aware that the fall of Syria would benefit Turkey, but not of the potential pipeline and of the extent to which Turkey is an energy hub.
Cheers!
Many thanks! I'm very glad about Roger's recommendation.
What a great article. Thank you for sharing!
Where did you find estimate for field reserves and levels of depletion? Is there a centralized source of info or did you have to dig into a bunch of sources?
many thanks! Data are from lots of different sources and analyst reports, usually specific for regions or even field-level.
Ace Work John!
Biggest Respect.
Many thanks, much appreciated!
What a great read. Thank you and thanks to Roger Pielke for the link to your piece. I saw it a few days ago on my phone's Sub page that shows stories at the top and writers' comments and notes below it. It was lurking until Roger's link pushed me into action.
Your geopolitical take is much appreciated for its simplicity and lack of political underpinnings. Well done.
Many thanks! Feedback like yours is very encouraging and keeps my newsletter going.
Such an interesting article… thank you for opening my eyes to something new to consider. The maps were really informative as well.
Thanks for your kind comment!
Interesting take. Also interesting to see which role will Europe take, given Turkey’s expanding ambitions and tensions with Greece .
That's an important consideration. Turkey will keep pushing into the Aegean Sea.
Very informative, sir!
thanks a lot!
I read a very good book about the Ottoman Empire recently! I love history
What was the title and author of the book? Thanks and happy new year
I believe it was The Arabs: A History by Eugene Rogan and also The Fall of the Ottomans by the same author :-)
Very interesting and not a take that is widespread at this point. However, given Erdogan's history, it makes a great deal of sense.
That said, it strikes me it will be many years before the dust truly settles in the Middle East with players entrenched in their new roles
I doubt anything will happen. Yeah there all these plans, but Syria is just likely to collapse Iraq/Afghanistan style and be in a state of civil war, and you can't build anything in that case.
That's of course a major concern, and Syria has a long way to go to stabilize.
it will never stabilize. Israel doesn't want syria to stabilize. The USA and israel will destabilize syria for as long as they can.
Reference Note 2 - is it correct that Angela Merkel vetoed that pipeline into Bulgaria before approving Nord Stream directly into Germany?