22 Comments
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AAA21's avatar

You miss the main issue: That these problems are being caused by a ridiculous policy of excessive reliance on supposedly “Green” renewables. France with its nuclear power has the only reliable energy infrastructure on the Continent!

Myth: Solar and wind are helping save our grid from extreme heat.

Truth: Preferences for Solar and Wind have made our electric grids embarrassingly vulnerable to heat waves—and cold snaps—that a fossil-fueled grid could easily manage.

https://open.substack.com/pub/alexepstein/p/myth-solar-and-wind-are-helping-save

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Gary Golnik's avatar

Are there no systems engineers left? It seems that the generation builders just assume that the grid will handle whatever they build? Is it because the grid can’t attract capital? So many questions.

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Esborogardius Antoniopolus's avatar

Decisions are made by the politicians and those para-politicians we call company executives.

An Engineer who likes to have a roof over the head of his family and the strange preference for at least 3 meals a day would feel himself strangely persuaded to agree with the vision of the folks who can put him out of a job in a whim.

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The Econolog's avatar

It comes down to incentives. Builder have received huge subsidies for decades, and small producers (like homeowners) even guaranteed feed-in prices, even though wholesale prices already turned negative part of the time. It's a bizarre system of incentives which has completely distorted economic signals.

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Sg's avatar

So many questions. why isn’t the system forced to move lock-step? To your first point… it’s a system.

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Pedro Ramilo's avatar

I am in Portugal and lived through it. Embarassingly, official explanations are that we were solely importing enegry from Spain bc it was cheaper than locally generated one.

Which meant our hidroelectric and gas turnines were offline at the time... (We had them, they were off)...

Recovery was partly achieved by bringing those online.

There is one other interesting topic: banks and government systems took 2 days to come back online. I suspect they all ran internal audits before going fully online in fear that this would have been a distraction for a larger cyber attack.

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The Econolog's avatar

Many thanks for your comments! Always great to hear from people who actually lived through it.

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james morrison's avatar

isn't the unspoken truth that France has nuclear so can supply the laggards?

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The Econolog's avatar

Domestic nuclear contributes between 60% and 70% of total electricity generation, probably a world leader in the share of nuclear. France has developed technology which makes it easier to ramp up/ down nuclear production to address standard daily swings, e.g. differences in day vs. night loads. It has bailed out Germany on several occasions when German renewables faltered.

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Gonzalo Ortiz Jaureguizar's avatar

Spain also has nuclear and in fact was worling at the time

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james morrison's avatar

thank you. did that help at all?

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Gonzalo Ortiz Jaureguizar's avatar

Nobody knows yet. Even this article is just speculation. What is true is that there is a lack of interconnection with the rest of the EU. Spain and Portugal have a unified power system. Still, given that they are only geographically connected to the EU through mountains, the infrastructure there is not the best. In fact, there are plans/rumors of a private initiative to build a direct, underwater connection to Italy (because Iberian power prices are super low and, in general, energy needs to be exported).

The Spanish president said yesterday that whoever says this is an issue related to the lack of nuclear or the excess of green energy is either lying or showing ignorance. What seems to be the proven root issue is that 15GW disappeared for 5 seconds. Now, several independent studies are looking into the reason why it happened.

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The Econolog's avatar

.... and thanks again for your comment! Always very helpful to get a local perspective (if I may presume so).

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The Econolog's avatar

I'd just like to stress again that I pointed out a key risk, and a potential source of the blackout.

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Tris's avatar

Thanks for these explanations.

One more time, it seems that the necessary improvement and redesign of the grid has not been taken into account at all, as political decision-makers were focused on the cost of installing the collectors. Which means the whole energy transition model that was supposed to work without any meaningful change regarding our way of life will cost much more than trumpeted. Maybe too much to really be affordable...

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The Econolog's avatar

That's exactly right - all those externalities have never been factored into total costs of solar, wind, etc. On the contrary, renewables have increased the costs for other producers and grid operators.

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Tris's avatar

I will never say that renewable energy has no use at all. But it is definitely not the magical bullet we've been sold.

So if we want to make it our main source of energy (and I believe we should), we will need to learn how to do with much less. But it means it can only be accompanied by major and relatively restrictive changes to our lifestyles nobody wants to talk or hear about...

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The Swiss Realist's avatar

Thanks for the summary, which again made me rub my eyes. As usual, Germany takes the biggest price with an almost genetic resistance to nuclear power, unless it comes from across the border in France of course. I’ve worked with solar plant operators in various European countries and everyone knows that the grid and inter connectivity is THE big issue, and yet nothing is done about it. As a European, it’s great to know we keep on illustrating to the Russians exactly how vulnerable we are.

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The Econolog's avatar

thanks for your comments! Certainly frustrating to see how dogma pushes engineering and science aside. How long can that go on?

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Gary Golnik's avatar

Frequency Response Working Group

2020 Final Report

Public Version

Just skimmed this report on the frequency stability of the us eastern interconnection which indicated that the grid was good for five years (2020 report). At least it is being looked at by FERC. The growing lack of grid inertia does indicate that the problem is getting worse. Doomberg has a lot of info on it.

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Chris Fehr's avatar

In size or magnatude how does it compare to the black out in Canada and the US in 2003?

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AAA21's avatar

You miss the main issue: That these problems are being caused by a ridiculous policy of excessive reliance on supposedly “Green” renewables. France with its nuclear power has the only reliable energy infrastructure on the Continent!

Myth: Solar and wind are helping save our grid from extreme heat.

Truth: Preferences for Solar and Wind have made our electric grids embarrassingly vulnerable to heat waves—and cold snaps—that a fossil-fueled grid could easily manage.

https://open.substack.com/pub/alexepstein/p/myth-solar-and-wind-are-helping-save

Expand full comment