19 Comments

I think the simplest explanation is that Biden is helping Zelensky gain a little more negotiating power. Putin wants this war to end, but he has to look like he won. The Ukrainians are well aware that they cannot simply accept a cease-fire, because all that will do is give Russia time to reload. If Zelensky is going to accept a truce, under which he'll definitely need to cede land, then he needs assurances that Ukraine will be fast-tracked into NATO. Otherwise they might as well keep fighting

Trump needs the Senate to push his agenda (whatever it ends up being), and there are still Cold War Republican senators who HATE Russia. All of this is to say that I think the war continues. Europe will step up to fill the void that the US leaves when Trump takes office and the war will continue. The destruction of Ukraine, as bad as it is, is still a price the West is willing to pay in order to keep Russia bogged down in this senseless conflict.

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The key strategic issue for Russia is Ukraine neutrality. Territorial gain is less important for Russia, I think, so VP may use the occupied territory as a bargaining chip. Except for the Krim - that's another priority target. There are a few other countries which follow this model (Switzerland; Austria successfully avoided a partition after WWII, contrary to Germany) and they are doing well with it.

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Missiles in Turkey never seems to get mentioned when the cuba missile crisis is discussed. Nice add!

On the topic, I’m not sure if the plan is as sinister as all that. What if current admin assumed maybe this can end it (get a win before trump) and if not, makes it messier for him? So much of international politics is domestic politics, especially for the super powers.

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when it comes to government in times of economic decline: assume the very worst. The very worst will happen if we continue this trajectory, the question is not if, but when.

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government is not our friend. we are its subjects, both the source of its power, and a threat to its power. All forms of government have near absolute power over their populace, and if that populace starts to challenge them, they'll use their monopoly on violence, or, start a war somewhere and send their population away to die

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As an external observer of US machinations globally and domestically, I think you are very close to the truth. Biden struggles to tie his own shoes and so someone else is calling these shots. Why was the Zelensky puppet installed and joining NATO such a priority? Neutrality would have been a far more appropriate goal, other than for the power mongers…They say that a fish rots from the head first, and the US, UK and German (EU) “leadership” is absolutely reeking…

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You forgot to mention how the US was instrumental in the 2014 Ukraine coup.

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Well, I can think in something like your proposal. Of course that they will damaged in some way to Mr.Trump, but this neocons are deeply rooted and won't be moved from their site by this new win (more than this: the peace plan of Trump it is just words, Russia don't want a frozen conflict, it wants a definitive conclusion). However, more than a reason, will be a small percentatge of the different processes that has caused this. We must remember that we tend to simplify in our representations pointing a few single causes, but a lot used to be interlaced with different "percentages" on the reality of things behaviour. We need this simplifications in order to understand. That's why, in my view, there is two main causes:

1.- Zelenski wants to scale and scale, because the war is lost, his head is hanging by a thread (nationalist can kill him) and there is almost more and more disappointment and anger between the population (still alive and still in the country) about this nonsense and iatrogenic war. His only option it is to engage (to engage more, with boots on the ground we can say) the OTAN; and he now that this can only be done with a mediatic impact of some Russian attack that allow us, the Western States and media, to create a narrative of a enemy to fight without matters the cost.

2.- Russia knows this and know the weakness of Western States (it's social cohesion weakness and also the bad state of military equipment). Also, if you smell the aroma of Russian air or read some points made there, we can see how there is a lot of big people (not just fool) that demands for a big dissuasion attack. This is a new red line that could be just words or could be a real one, like was real the red line in the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine (most of Westerns thinks that was just a threat, an act of bravado).

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Is there no where safe left in the world? 🤔

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The Ukrainians I know were pretty fed up with Russian interference in their politics before 2014. Ultimately Russia believes it should be able to control the countries in its "near abroad", Ukrainians and their supporters believe that Sovereign States should be able to control their own affairs based on the views of their populations, not autocrats in the Kremlin. Use of Ukrainian weapons against Russia, a country that has broken International Law by invading them and has conducted multiple war crimes, seems pretty justified. Not sure how this is different to Russian use of Iranian drones of North Korean soldiers which seems pretty escalatory?

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Seems like you have bought hook line and sinker the MSM and neocons stories of Russia-Ukraine war. Substack writers tend to tell the truth not parrot government propaganda.

Everything you say about Russia can be said about the good old USA, interfering in other countries elections, middle east wars, war crimes, etc. Tell me how I am wrong?

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Not sure what MSM or Neocons are (maybe I just need to take the Hot Tamales pill after all), I am just going on what I have been told be people living in/from Ukraine.

I would be interested in what your definition of "truth" is, as surely everything is a narrative and relative? Hence I think that context, experience and expertise matter and that is why I value the views of my Ukrainian contacts over my own opinions.

I quite agree with your comments about the USA, the legality of invading Iraq was questionable, support for Israel seems to fall on the wrong side of legality and rendition, indefinite detention and illegal tortured are undountably illegal. I would in any case suggest that 2 wrongs do not make a right and just because the US behaves as if "might is right" doesn't mean everyone should, otherwise you would believe Russia is justified carrying out extrajudicial killings in the Europe and actively targetting Ukrainian civilians?

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When I heard about the "approval" to use ballistic long-range missiles I thought along the same lines of "escalation" that you presented. All those "states of emergency" declared everywhere is reminiscent of the Corona exercise - who would disagree (and still be considered a "good democrat") to not lock down the economy in light of a "state of emergency", right?

And they'd definitely need a bigger justification than a simple "deadly virus" this time around to enforce an economic lockdown, the unshackling of further debt-funded spending sprees without raising productivity in any way - war economy is magical in that you can write a lot of massive profits into every profiteer's books right now. Let the future deal with the aftermath of debt, runaway and depending on the amount, hyperinflation and other "ugly" things.

They'll tell you it was all necessary, you know, because of the war! And who would oppose spending to save the free world from an evil tyrant? Sounds like a feudal system clinging to the last straws of power before the unavoidable implosion.

This projection seems ridiculous to those who are disinterested in how escalatory "tit-for-tat" exchanges work, and most will prefer switching on the next Netflix series instead of thinking about anything "hard" like that. But imagine a Netflix series with that scenario, beautifully filmed with award-winning actors filling out all the drama. It would be the next big blockbuster and be considered "great dramatical writing", I'm sure.

I am amazed at how any "democracy" can let an outgoing sitting duck with visible speech pattern and memory issues still sign anything of a magnitude larger than ordering a new fountain on the front lawn of the White House. However, they could and did allow for this severe escalation in an already very hot conflict - and the desperados in Ukraine only too gladly took the bait.

The worst part is: I wonder who in Europe realizes they're being "pawned off" to be expendable if push came to shove and a truly international-scale conflict would erupt, especially one with a nuclear strike on the books?

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Thanks for your comments! First of all, the movie idea is great, I’ve made a mental note ;-)

And who knows who actually made the decision – probably the same ones who wrote “his” resignation letter from the campaign. I’m pretty sure it wasn’t Biden. At the G-20 meeting in Brazil he ducked out of the group picture with other country heads. He doesn’t want to be associated with anything that’s happening now.

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While it may seem crazy, what we’ve learned over the past 4 years is that crazy thinking isn’t crazy enough

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The scenario outlined is well, crazy and way too conspiratorial for me to ever take seriously. Moreover, since these stories are already out there they will be quickly distributed if anything like this ever starts to develop. And there is no reasonable way all the communications systems can be stopped by the US govt, the systems are way too distributed for that to happen. Even communist countries with many years of govt control of everything can not stop the transmission of information.

The most reasonable explanation is that Biden wants to make President Trump's job of ending the war more difficult and politically messy. Hopefully, Putin - being much more sane that the current WH resident - realizes the situation changes dramatically on Jan 20th when sanity returns to the Oval Office. I must also assume President Trump has been in contact with the Kremlin and has de-escalated this insanity that Zelensky and Biden have wrought.

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I hear you, and up until a few years ago I would have called it conspiracy as well. But what I’ve seen since then changed my mind. The globalist elite will stop at nothing to enforce its agenda – nothing. A war in Europe (not Ukraine – Europe), draconian restrictions in the U.S., all but tokens on its monopoly board.

Internet communications: just take out X, and they have full control over messaging again.

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Perhaps Biden simply responded to Ukraine's repeated requests?

Ukrainian forces currently occupy Russian territory, and are occupying it using NATO equipment. How is firing a handful of shells into Russian territory a massive escalation over killing Russians, in Russia, and taking Russian territory?

If the key strategic issue for Russia is 'neutrality' then why has Putin relentlessly banged on about Crimea actually being Russian all along and why is Russia committing so many war crimes amongst a civilian population they want nothing more than to be neutral about them? You'd think Russia would ahave invaded Finland in June 2022 to ensure 'neutrality' there too. Is it also safe to assume China will see an invasion to create a neutral buffer region in Heilonjiang? Or is it only Ukraine that poses such a geographic threat that it needs to be 'neutralised'? How deep does Russia need to go to ensure a sufficient buffer zone? Deeper then the Oblasts it has already occupied? If it is as far as Kiev then I've terrible news for Poland, and Finland, and Slovakia, and Romania, and, and, and...

Still, at least no fascist leader has ever hidden behind the concept of Lebensraum, so there is no reason to be suspicious.

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You seem to ignore the fact it was NATO and West that continues to provoke Russia and provoked this war, and as the article describes this has been going on for nearly 30 years now. When will the West stop their insanity of poking the bear and why are they continuing to do it. Sometimes the "bad guy" is the one who is writing the narrative not unlike the Progressives which are always accusing Conservatives of things they are actually doing.

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