Mutually Assured Destruction

Ukraine violated a geopolitical defense paradigm

Dear readers,

Rescheduling my posting lineup, driven by the need to address recent events. On Sunday, Ukraine conducted a raid on Russian airports which was a partial success, however much more limited than initially reported (and still widely believed). But it also resulted in huge collateral damage – potentially a sea change with large geopolitical implications, unwinding decades of risk management. Make no mistake, this is huge – be the first to read it here!

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In late November 2023, Vasyl Malyuk, Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, received a daunting task from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Selensky – prepare an operation to destroy Russian long-range bomber airplanes.

Malyuk went ahead. Over the next 18 months, he identified suitable airports and reviewed airfields. He singled out 5 airports, spread out all across Russia until the far east. Ukrainian agents smuggled drones into Russia and positioned them near strike sites, ostensibly hidden in wooden sheds. At night on Sunday, June 1, Selensky ordered to execute the strike. The drones rose from their sheds under remote control, covered the short distances to airfields, and rammed into the airplanes positioned there.

In initial press statements to announce the military scoop, codenamed ‘Operation Spiderweb’, Ukrainian sources said 41 planes on four bases were hit, taking one-third of long-range bombers out of action. The operation was hailed as an overwhelming success by Ukraine and most of the international press.

(Vasyl Malyuk looking over attack plans (Source: Security Service of Ukraine/AFP); raided airports (Source: ABC News); crates with smuggled drones (Reuters); Drones packed with explosives (Reuters))

As the smoke cleared however, a few question marks appeared over details of the operation. It is very likely that strikes on only two airfields reached their targets, and the number of planes destroyed is much lower – probably below ten, and a few more damaged and out of service only temporarily.

But the real damage is to a carefully calibrated power balance which has been built over decades.